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Global Economy Have Hope in the New Round of Expansion Cycle
- By Himfr Mary
- Published 12/27/2011
- Business Management
- Unrated
Himfr Mary
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The next 5 years the world economy will enter a new round of expansion cycles, but growth will slow down significantly. U.S. economy entering a new growth cycle is expected, but the growth rate will be reduced. Fluctuations in the economy may be repeated in Europe, but relatively weak expansion efforts. Japan's economy will continue to "take off in Europe and America, into the Asia-Pacific" process, but the structural problems that will hinder their economic growth. Increasingly strong domestic demand will be to promote sustained and rapid growth of emerging economies, a major power, and become a driving focus of global economic growth.
Expected to enter a new round of global economic expansion cycle, but growth has slowed
Run from the global economic cycle perspective, the second half of 2008 to the first half of 2009 was a recession, the second half of 2009 to 2010 is the recovery period. In 2011 -2012 is expected to enter a new round of global economic growth cycle. However, subject to a number of factors, economic growth will be far less than the 2003-2007 round of rapid growth.
Aftermath of the financial crisis is difficult to eradicate in the short term. The financial crisis is more than a decade in the global economic and financial development of the various uncoordinated, unstable, unbalanced factors in a general outbreak. Crisis, countries have issued a series of rapid and widespread response. However, these measures from the government departments in general are "leveraged" to offset the private sector "to leverage" effect, the amount of the money supply to-day "binge" to make up for financial institutions and financial market financing function of the "blood loss", not radical defects caused by the deep crisis, but lead to new risk factors. Future sovereign debt crises, asset price bubbles or inflation crisis will come and go, constraint on economic growth efforts.
Financial crisis triggered by the global growth mode transformation, the potential growth rate will be reduced. Crisis, developed countries tend to reduce consumer spending, weak domestic demand; income growth in developing countries to pre-backed government's stimulus policies as an opportunity to lower the basis of household indebtedness, as a lever to set off a wave of a new round of spending. However, the global "rebalancing" would not push for faster economic growth, as developing countries, consumption of smaller, short-term slowdown in consumption in developed countries is difficult to make up for "free" space. In accordance with the developed countries, consumption growth slowed 0.5 percentage points, to speed up consumption in developing countries by 1 percentage point is estimated that global consumption at least until 2015 to grow faster.
New technologie
s, new industries and infrastructure investments are short-term economic growth is difficult highlights. Developed infrastructure, renovation, construction of infrastructure in developing countries have great investment in space, may become a new economic growth point, but for social employment, the pulling effect of the new industrial development is not obvious, and on the sustainability of growth less radiation effects in other countries.
Than-expected U.S. economic recovery,
Future growth may slow
From 2008-2010, the U.S. economy experienced a typical "U" shaped recession and recovery process, much stronger than the European economy, driven by population size and population structure of the United States has the advantage of relatively flexible financial system, crisis response effective and decisive measures to promote recovery in consumer spending and export competitiveness improved. However, the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy can not hide the risks and difficulties. The next 5 years the U.S. economy is expected to enter a new growth cycle, but the growth rate will be reduced.
China Economic Times: determine future U.S. economic slowdown is mainly based on what?
Zhou Jingtong: First, the adjustment of U.S. real estate market has not yet ended. This adjustment process may run through the whole of 2010, and to recover to pre-crisis level, but also take a few years. Downturn in the real estate market not only affect investment in the United States, but also affect the consumer, thereby affecting the global economic growth.
Second, U.S. financial institutions hit by the crisis. Will spend a long time, "deleveraging", digest the sub-prime and derivatives bubble, leading to continued weakness in financial credit; U.S. financial markets is difficult in the short term to return to pre-crisis levels, particularly in the securitization market will be long-term pause. Therefore, the U.S. financial industry will be supportive of economic growth weakened.
Third, the recovery of the U.S. consumer is still the main benefit from the economic stimulus plan. Reduction in the stimulation effect, the U.S. economic growth may slow. U.S. private consumption accounts for more than 70% of GDP, mainly by the formation of asset prices, the wealth effect of rising support for the crisis to U.S. residents suffered massive loss of financial wealth, the price adjustment also affects the borrowing power of the residents. In addition, high unemployment and limit income growth.
Fourth, the "twin deficits" that plague the U.S. economy. Massive U.S. government rescue measures introduced to further boost the level of the U.S. budget deficit, additional spending to the limited space; the U.S. "exports doubling plan" will be subject to European Resuscitation weak U.S. dollar and other factors, the domestic production capacity still can not meet consumer demand, the current account deficit will be a long time. "Twin deficits" would weaken the U.S. economy to return to high growth momentum.
Expected to enter a new round of global economic expansion cycle, but growth has slowed
Run from the global economic cycle perspective, the second half of 2008 to the first half of 2009 was a recession, the second half of 2009 to 2010 is the recovery period. In 2011 -2012 is expected to enter a new round of global economic growth cycle. However, subject to a number of factors, economic growth will be far less than the 2003-2007 round of rapid growth.
Aftermath of the financial crisis is difficult to eradicate in the short term. The financial crisis is more than a decade in the global economic and financial development of the various uncoordinated, unstable, unbalanced factors in a general outbreak. Crisis, countries have issued a series of rapid and widespread response. However, these measures from the government departments in general are "leveraged" to offset the private sector "to leverage" effect, the amount of the money supply to-day "binge" to make up for financial institutions and financial market financing function of the "blood loss", not radical defects caused by the deep crisis, but lead to new risk factors. Future sovereign debt crises, asset price bubbles or inflation crisis will come and go, constraint on economic growth efforts.
Financial crisis triggered by the global growth mode transformation, the potential growth rate will be reduced. Crisis, developed countries tend to reduce consumer spending, weak domestic demand; income growth in developing countries to pre-backed government's stimulus policies as an opportunity to lower the basis of household indebtedness, as a lever to set off a wave of a new round of spending. However, the global "rebalancing" would not push for faster economic growth, as developing countries, consumption of smaller, short-term slowdown in consumption in developed countries is difficult to make up for "free" space. In accordance with the developed countries, consumption growth slowed 0.5 percentage points, to speed up consumption in developing countries by 1 percentage point is estimated that global consumption at least until 2015 to grow faster.
New technologie
Than-expected U.S. economic recovery,
Future growth may slow
From 2008-2010, the U.S. economy experienced a typical "U" shaped recession and recovery process, much stronger than the European economy, driven by population size and population structure of the United States has the advantage of relatively flexible financial system, crisis response effective and decisive measures to promote recovery in consumer spending and export competitiveness improved. However, the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy can not hide the risks and difficulties. The next 5 years the U.S. economy is expected to enter a new growth cycle, but the growth rate will be reduced.
China Economic Times: determine future U.S. economic slowdown is mainly based on what?
Zhou Jingtong: First, the adjustment of U.S. real estate market has not yet ended. This adjustment process may run through the whole of 2010, and to recover to pre-crisis level, but also take a few years. Downturn in the real estate market not only affect investment in the United States, but also affect the consumer, thereby affecting the global economic growth.
Second, U.S. financial institutions hit by the crisis. Will spend a long time, "deleveraging", digest the sub-prime and derivatives bubble, leading to continued weakness in financial credit; U.S. financial markets is difficult in the short term to return to pre-crisis levels, particularly in the securitization market will be long-term pause. Therefore, the U.S. financial industry will be supportive of economic growth weakened.
Third, the recovery of the U.S. consumer is still the main benefit from the economic stimulus plan. Reduction in the stimulation effect, the U.S. economic growth may slow. U.S. private consumption accounts for more than 70% of GDP, mainly by the formation of asset prices, the wealth effect of rising support for the crisis to U.S. residents suffered massive loss of financial wealth, the price adjustment also affects the borrowing power of the residents. In addition, high unemployment and limit income growth.
Fourth, the "twin deficits" that plague the U.S. economy. Massive U.S. government rescue measures introduced to further boost the level of the U.S. budget deficit, additional spending to the limited space; the U.S. "exports doubling plan" will be subject to European Resuscitation weak U.S. dollar and other factors, the domestic production capacity still can not meet consumer demand, the current account deficit will be a long time. "Twin deficits" would weaken the U.S. economy to return to high growth momentum.
