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U.S. Economy is Losing a Variety of Solid Growth Elements
- By Himfr Tian
- Published 12/26/2011
- Business Management
- Unrated
Himfr Tian
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In the global economy enters troubled times, when, looking for the core of the global economy is no doubt grasp the trend of the variable to be. This core variable is the dollar. Consider the medium term, the weak dollar has not only monetary variables, but also an economic phenomenon. As the U.S. economy suddenly lost stability, income, ability to stimulate growth, employment creation capacity and access to external funding help, until the second half of next year, the weak U.S. dollar will probably be accompanied by the global economy, the economies of the conflict and the game will run through them.
Since September the global economy has entered a troubled: lingering shadow of the second bottom and second to stimulate the voice becomes stronger, the exchange rate volatility come and go, darling of the asset price inflation, signs of looming global inflation, currency more and more concentrated the smoke of war. Colorful chaos and confusion in the market, economic turmoil, like a hybrid floc-like intertwined, entangled, confusing and unpredictable. At this point, finding the core of the global economy, the uncertainty of the variable is no doubt grasp the trend in the must.
The core variable is the global economy, the U.S. dollar. On the one hand, the weak dollar is down global economic growth momentum, the recovery difference expansion mismatch between the regional economic cycle, and loose monetary policies were introduced in the results; the other hand, the weak U.S. dollar is the world awash with liquidity, asset markets usher in chaos Carnival incentives. The trend of global economic interests of the game, monetary evolution of the war, and capital market trend, largely depends on the sustainability of the weak dollar.
So, what is short-lived or weak dollar trend? Consider the medium term, I think, the weak dollar has not only monetary variables, but also an economic phenomenon. How long can U.S. dollar weakness, largely depends on whether the U.S. economy will be sluggish in the long future.
Considering the U.S. economic cycle, the key is to recover the newly re-depth analysis into the historical framework in order to find the U.S. economy is losing and always retained elements of long-term growth, combined with the new changes in long period and in order to restore a real present, and outline a rational future.
First, the U.S. economy suddenly lost stability. Since World War II, to benefit from the financial system improved, enhanced supervision, government discretionary increasing the degree of improvement in the economic structure, the efficient allocation of economic resources, the tax effect of automatic stabilizers to enhance and improve the social security system, the U.S. economy showing a "enhanced stability" of the core features. U.S. economic growth and stability, not only to be quickly out of the United States every political, military, and economic development of the shadow caused by exogenous shocks, but also the trend of the U.S. leading the world economy in the international monetary system and play a central role in laying the material foundation. Adjusted according to the latest U.S. government data, the second quarter of this year, since the statistical data in 1947 U.S. real GDP since the quarter-over-year annualized standard deviation of 4.11%, nearly 60 years, nearly 50 years, nearly 40 years, nearly 30 years, nearly 20 years and the standard deviation of nearly 10 years, compared with 3.96%, 3.57%, 3.54%, 2.98%, 2.66% and 2.65%, volatility of successive decline, indicating that the stability of the U.S. economy gradually increased. However,
since the second quarter of 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis, the standard deviation of the index back up to 3.59%.
Second, U.S. economic growth is losing the ability to drive revenue, revenue growth and create micro-ability is quietly reduced. The consumer as the cornerstone of the U.S. economy has been able to achieve long-term prosperity, largely because the macro-level economic growth and income growth between the micro-level interaction is always there. But the subprime crisis, the U.S. policy control to the extreme Keynesian turn, this interaction screeching halt, began to lose microeconomic foundation of macroeconomic growth. From the third quarter of last year, the second quarter of this year, the subprime crisis and the recovery period after a new round of the first year, the U.S. average of 2.97% quarterly growth rate, and 3.31% since 1947, the historical average is almost the same. However, stimulus-driven mass-than-expected recovery, no income can bring the same intensity of the micro growth. According to my calculations, since 1947, the U.S. rate of disposable income and economic growth in the long-term average ratio of 1.04, indicating that a unit of economic growth or even bring a little revenue out of a unit; but in the third quarter of the second quarter of this year, this rate suddenly dropped to 0.21 index.
Again, growth in the U.S. economy is losing the ability to create jobs. Adequate job, not just the U.S. economy an important guarantee for the long-term steady development, but also inclusive of American society can remain an important basis for long-term stability. Since World War II U.S. economic growth and unemployment rate in the negative correlation between long-term, but this relationship is not reflected in this new round of post-crisis recovery. The third quarter of last year, the second quarter of this year, although the U.S. economy achieved an average of 2.97% quarterly growth, but in August this year, the unemployment rate is still highest in the 9.6%. According to my calculations, since 1947, the U.S. unemployment rate and economic growth in the long-term average ratio of 1.70, while last year's third quarter to the second quarter of this year, the rate suddenly rose to 3.28 index. Unit of economic growth the unemployment rate corresponds to a dramatic rise in the unemployment data contains long-term structural unemployment may also simultaneously increased.
Finally, the U.S. economy is losing balance, help to obtain external funding is also quietly dropped. For a long time, the international trade sector and international capital flows "deficit - a net inflow of" structure, not only made the United States to low-cost high consumption of foreign goods, and access to an endless stream of external financial support, perhaps the United States at the international level to maintain the goods and capital flows a certain balance. In this new round of post-crisis recovery, this balance was broken in July last year to June of the year, 5 months, the U.S. economy, "trade deficit and the net outflow of financial capital" of the imbalance. According to the author estimates that in January 1992 to June 2010 of 222 months, the U.S. trade balance and net capital flows and the average amount of 60 billion U.S. dollars, can last July to June of this year, the indicator of the average -205 million.
In short, the U.S. economy has lost and is losing one of a series of maintenance of the elements of healthy growth, which means that the U.S. economy is sluggish and the upcoming experience, may be more than-expected rebound in the second bottom of the short-term needs. The economic base determines the trend of financial variables, the medium-term U.S. economic weakness is direct laid the basis for the weak dollar, but also by extending and further expand the quantitative easing monetary policy indirectly undermine the strength of the dollar short-term momentum.
Since September the global economy has entered a troubled: lingering shadow of the second bottom and second to stimulate the voice becomes stronger, the exchange rate volatility come and go, darling of the asset price inflation, signs of looming global inflation, currency more and more concentrated the smoke of war. Colorful chaos and confusion in the market, economic turmoil, like a hybrid floc-like intertwined, entangled, confusing and unpredictable. At this point, finding the core of the global economy, the uncertainty of the variable is no doubt grasp the trend in the must.
The core variable is the global economy, the U.S. dollar. On the one hand, the weak dollar is down global economic growth momentum, the recovery difference expansion mismatch between the regional economic cycle, and loose monetary policies were introduced in the results; the other hand, the weak U.S. dollar is the world awash with liquidity, asset markets usher in chaos Carnival incentives. The trend of global economic interests of the game, monetary evolution of the war, and capital market trend, largely depends on the sustainability of the weak dollar.
So, what is short-lived or weak dollar trend? Consider the medium term, I think, the weak dollar has not only monetary variables, but also an economic phenomenon. How long can U.S. dollar weakness, largely depends on whether the U.S. economy will be sluggish in the long future.
Considering the U.S. economic cycle, the key is to recover the newly re-depth analysis into the historical framework in order to find the U.S. economy is losing and always retained elements of long-term growth, combined with the new changes in long period and in order to restore a real present, and outline a rational future.
First, the U.S. economy suddenly lost stability. Since World War II, to benefit from the financial system improved, enhanced supervision, government discretionary increasing the degree of improvement in the economic structure, the efficient allocation of economic resources, the tax effect of automatic stabilizers to enhance and improve the social security system, the U.S. economy showing a "enhanced stability" of the core features. U.S. economic growth and stability, not only to be quickly out of the United States every political, military, and economic development of the shadow caused by exogenous shocks, but also the trend of the U.S. leading the world economy in the international monetary system and play a central role in laying the material foundation. Adjusted according to the latest U.S. government data, the second quarter of this year, since the statistical data in 1947 U.S. real GDP since the quarter-over-year annualized standard deviation of 4.11%, nearly 60 years, nearly 50 years, nearly 40 years, nearly 30 years, nearly 20 years and the standard deviation of nearly 10 years, compared with 3.96%, 3.57%, 3.54%, 2.98%, 2.66% and 2.65%, volatility of successive decline, indicating that the stability of the U.S. economy gradually increased. However,
Second, U.S. economic growth is losing the ability to drive revenue, revenue growth and create micro-ability is quietly reduced. The consumer as the cornerstone of the U.S. economy has been able to achieve long-term prosperity, largely because the macro-level economic growth and income growth between the micro-level interaction is always there. But the subprime crisis, the U.S. policy control to the extreme Keynesian turn, this interaction screeching halt, began to lose microeconomic foundation of macroeconomic growth. From the third quarter of last year, the second quarter of this year, the subprime crisis and the recovery period after a new round of the first year, the U.S. average of 2.97% quarterly growth rate, and 3.31% since 1947, the historical average is almost the same. However, stimulus-driven mass-than-expected recovery, no income can bring the same intensity of the micro growth. According to my calculations, since 1947, the U.S. rate of disposable income and economic growth in the long-term average ratio of 1.04, indicating that a unit of economic growth or even bring a little revenue out of a unit; but in the third quarter of the second quarter of this year, this rate suddenly dropped to 0.21 index.
Again, growth in the U.S. economy is losing the ability to create jobs. Adequate job, not just the U.S. economy an important guarantee for the long-term steady development, but also inclusive of American society can remain an important basis for long-term stability. Since World War II U.S. economic growth and unemployment rate in the negative correlation between long-term, but this relationship is not reflected in this new round of post-crisis recovery. The third quarter of last year, the second quarter of this year, although the U.S. economy achieved an average of 2.97% quarterly growth, but in August this year, the unemployment rate is still highest in the 9.6%. According to my calculations, since 1947, the U.S. unemployment rate and economic growth in the long-term average ratio of 1.70, while last year's third quarter to the second quarter of this year, the rate suddenly rose to 3.28 index. Unit of economic growth the unemployment rate corresponds to a dramatic rise in the unemployment data contains long-term structural unemployment may also simultaneously increased.
Finally, the U.S. economy is losing balance, help to obtain external funding is also quietly dropped. For a long time, the international trade sector and international capital flows "deficit - a net inflow of" structure, not only made the United States to low-cost high consumption of foreign goods, and access to an endless stream of external financial support, perhaps the United States at the international level to maintain the goods and capital flows a certain balance. In this new round of post-crisis recovery, this balance was broken in July last year to June of the year, 5 months, the U.S. economy, "trade deficit and the net outflow of financial capital" of the imbalance. According to the author estimates that in January 1992 to June 2010 of 222 months, the U.S. trade balance and net capital flows and the average amount of 60 billion U.S. dollars, can last July to June of this year, the indicator of the average -205 million.
In short, the U.S. economy has lost and is losing one of a series of maintenance of the elements of healthy growth, which means that the U.S. economy is sluggish and the upcoming experience, may be more than-expected rebound in the second bottom of the short-term needs. The economic base determines the trend of financial variables, the medium-term U.S. economic weakness is direct laid the basis for the weak dollar, but also by extending and further expand the quantitative easing monetary policy indirectly undermine the strength of the dollar short-term momentum.
